Sanctimonia Binocs, Bhubaneswar, 29 May 2025
India’s Challenge: Defining Costs for Türkiye’s Pro-Pakistan Stance
Türkiye’s pronounced alignment with Pakistan following India’s “Operation Sindoor” signifies a notable evolution in Ankara’s foreign policy, compelling New Delhi to formulate a more robust and sustained strategic response. This shift, moving beyond previous diplomatic balancing, necessitates that India clearly articulates the potential economic and strategic repercussions for Türkiye as it deepens its ties with Islamabad, potentially at the expense of a burgeoning relationship with India.
Ankara’s Decisive Tilt Towards Islamabad
The aftermath of India’s Operation Sindoor, a retaliatory measure for the April 22 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, saw Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan openly criticize India’s military actions within Pakistani territory. He described them as “provocative” and warned of wider regional conflict. This verbal condemnation was substantiated by tangible military support: a Turkish Ada-class anti-submarine corvette docked in Karachi, and a C-130 Hercules aircraft, reportedly carrying military supplies, landed in Pakistan. Furthermore, despite official denials from Ankara, Pakistan’s deployment of Turkish-made Songar drones during the hostilities highlighted the deepening military cooperation between the two nations.
This strategic embrace of Pakistan by Türkiye is not an impulsive reaction but reflects President Erdoğan’s broader geopolitical vision. His approach appears to prioritise alliances rooted in shared cultural and religious identities over purely economic considerations. This is evident in Türkiye’s decision to bolster ties with Pakistan, even if it means risking relations with India, a significantly larger and economically more powerful nation.
Several global geopolitical factors reinforce this Türkiye-Pakistan partnership. Both nations share historical and ideological connections, tracing back to their roles as key US allies during the Cold War. Presently, both find themselves increasingly distanced from Western security structures. Türkiye’s relationship with NATO has been strained by its acquisition of Russia’s S-400 missile system and its subsequent removal from the F-35 fighter jet program. This has pushed Ankara to explore alternative strategic partnerships. Concurrently, Pakistan, once heavily reliant on US military assistance, now increasingly depends on China for its defence technology needs. This shared predicament of seeking regional relevance amidst waning Western support has drawn Ankara and Islamabad closer. Türkiye regards Pakistan as its foremost defence ally outside of NATO, enhancing its geopolitical influence in South Asia and providing a counterweight to Saudi Arabian and Emirati influence within the Muslim world. In return, Pakistan gains access to Turkish defence technology and crucial diplomatic support, particularly valuable given its isolation from Western military suppliers.
Rethinking India’s Response
The strengthening Türkiye-Pakistan axis presents considerable challenges for India. Historically, New Delhi’s diplomatic reactions to Turkish provocations have been measured. Relations experienced a notable downturn between 2019 and 2022, marked by sharp media exchanges after India abrogated Jammu and Kashmir’s special constitutional status. India signaled its disapproval by enhancing support for Armenia during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and by deepening strategic partnerships with Türkiye’s regional competitors, including Greece, Cyprus, Israel, the UAE, and Iran.
However, India’s overall strategic posture towards Türkiye has largely remained reactive. Recent calls for boycotting Turkish goods following Operation Sindoor, while reflecting public sentiment, offer limited strategic leverage. A more coherent and sustainable policy is required, moving beyond temporary or emotionally driven responses.
India’s Proactive Strategy
India must now adopt a comprehensive, multipronged approach. Firstly, diplomatic engagements should be utilized to clearly communicate the potential economic and strategic detriments Türkiye might face by overtly prioritizing its relationship with Pakistan over its ties with India. Highlighting the opportunity costs associated with alienating a major economy like India could influence Ankara’s calculus.
Secondly, India should proactively strengthen its bilateral relationships within the Arab and broader Islamic world. Cultivating deeper ties with influential nations such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Indonesia, and Iran can serve to diplomatically counter Türkiye’s ambitions for expanded influence in South Asia.
Thirdly, bolstering India’s indigenous defence capabilities through the “Atmanirbhar Bharat” (Self-reliant India) initiative is crucial for ensuring strategic autonomy. Expanding domestic defence production and reinforcing regional security alliances will help mitigate vulnerabilities arising from shifting geopolitical alignments and reduce dependence on external suppliers.
Lastly, a reassessment of India’s regional engagement strategy is warranted. India’s diminished participation in forums like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has inadvertently created space for external powers, including Türkiye, China, and the US, to increase their influence in the region. Reinvigorating such regional cooperation mechanisms could help restore India’s traditional primacy and limit the strategic inroads made by external actors.
Clarity in an Era of Change
Türkiye’s decision to openly align with Pakistan indicates a significant and potentially long-term strategic recalibration in South Asia. While Ankara’s current approach might offer short-term geopolitical advantages, it risks estranging Türkiye from the substantial economic and strategic opportunities that a robust partnership with India could offer. India’s response must be decisive and forward-looking, crafting a proactive policy that not only safeguards its immediate regional interests but also reinforces its strategic autonomy and clearly communicates the implications of strategic choices made by other nations. In an era of fluid alliances and complex geopolitical currents, such strategic clarity is paramount.
