Nirvik Bureau, Bhubaneswar, 7th November 2022
Last week, we had said that a victory for BJD at Dhamnagar could prove to be a masterstroke because it would pave the way to roll out Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik’s dream of politically empowering women by giving 49 tickets (33%) to women in the 2024 assembly elections. However, that has not happened and BJP has comfortably retained the seat. We are now hearing that this win for BJP is the beginning of the end of the BJD’s long rule in the state.
We do not share that view. While the victory of the BJP is commendable considering the might of the BJD and its unbeaten track record (till Dhamnagar) in bypolls since 2019, our sense is that this is only a blip on the radar. The BJD would still be the favourite to win in 2024 primarily for 3 reasons. Firstly, the popularity of brand Naveen remains very high and the BJD would encash that once again. Secondly, the BJP is a divided house in Odisha and the infighting within their senior leaders would damage their prospects in 2024. Thirdly, the central leadership of the BJP does not seem to be keen to remove Naveen Patnaik from power. They have enough ammunition with them that could be used against the BJD government but they are reluctant to do so. The support that they receive from the BJD in the Rajya Sabha is extremely crucial for them and they would not like to rock the boat as yet.
The BJP has to go back to the drawing board and rethink its Odisha strategy if it wants this blip on the radar (Dhamnagar) to turn into the winds of change in Odisha. Mere wishful thinking cannot dislodge the BJD from power in 2024.
